I'm curious as to how such a change in legislation will affect accidents via changes in behavior. With respect to seat belts, some have argued that the reduction in risk presented by a seat belt is compensated for by increases in speed and other increases in risky driving behavior (something called risk compensation). I came up with a couple of (back of the envelope) competing hypotheses on the cellphone ban:
- Banning cellphone use may result in people paying closer attention to their driving, thereby reducing accidents.
- Banning cellphone may result in people increasing their speed, perhaps driving more recklessly in order to get home or to the office to make their calls.